Famine

Famine may be seen as "the regional failure of food production or distribution systems, leading to sharply increased mortality due to starvation and associated disease" (Cox 1981, 5). While other definitions exist as well, this one usefully emphasizes regional, not family failure; points to the importance of markets and, by implication, of shifting market demand for different foods in addition to their aggregate supply; identifies "excess deaths" - deaths that otherwise would not have occurred- as the core feature of famine; and attributes those deaths to morbidity as well as to seriously reduced consumption. Indeed, most famine-induced mortality tends to occur after the worst of the food crisis is over but while the crisis of infectious disease persists (Bongaarts and Cain 1982; Greenough 1976 and 1982; see also the studies cited by Dreze and Sen 1989, 44).
What this definition does not adequately convey is that famine is the endpoint of a lengthy process in which people in increasing numbers lose their access to food. Most famines have long gestation periods, typically covering two or more crop seasons. Because the descent into famine is slow, early detection is possible. Because it is also typically shrouded in ambiguity, early detection is rarely definitive and seldom produces early response. Herein lies a dilemma that continues to plague famine early warning systems.